Hyping storms is really risky business

The danger, of course, is getting too complacent.

No, not from the holiday. Complacency is what these three-day weekends are about - especially this one, heralding, as it does, the de-facto end of summer. The danger comes from Exaggerated Earl, our latest overhyped hurricane.

It sure was less than had been promoted, especially around here.

But just because one storm doesn't measure up to TV expectations, that doesn't mean the next one will also be a wimp. Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia and Karl could all be ferocious hurricanes, for all we know. They could pack the wind and water and destruction Earl certainly did not.

And therein lies the central frustration in the hit-or-miss science of hurricane prediction. Therein lies the central risk, too.

To motivate people to take a storm seriously, that takes some serious alarm.

"Cone of Uncertainty!" the weather people warn us. "Category Through the Roof!"

But with each false alarm comes a deeper load of skepticism, and it turns into a trap: Unless you scare the people, they do nothing. The more you scare 'em, the less they believe you the next time.

That goes a long way to explaining why people in New Orleans, including quite a few Henicans, were so reluctant to leave five years ago as Katrina bore down. Evacuation's a hassle. After the tenth or twentieth false alarm, it's easy to say, "I'll take my chances again."

Then, the next thing you know, you're stranded at the Superdome, or you're waving from a rooftop in the Lower Ninth Ward.

The real one will come one day to Long Island. And who will believe it before it does?

EARL'S PEARLS

ASKED AND UNANSWERED: Resolved: That stalking arrest doesn't really help Dave Mejias' State Senate campaign. Now who'd like to take the other side in this debate? . . . How are the never-again meetings going at the LIRR? One little fire and then - this? . . . Lowest in four decades? If LI mortgage rates go much lower, will the banks start paying US interest on our home loans? . . . Why did they call it a "Comfort Shelter" in the second-floor gym at the Montauk Playhouse Community Center? Safety shelter? OK. A happy-to-have-it-if-Earl-had-been-worse shelter? Sure. But Comfort? Really? . . . The Montauk surfers sure seemed happy, didn't they? . . . Could two high-school football teams be more evenly matched than the 2010 squads from St. Anthony's and Holy Trinity? Of course, players on both CHSFL powerhouses will disagree . . . $2.61 in West Islip? Still the cheapest gas on LI, right?

E-mail ellis@henican.com

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