Hochul vs. Blakeman: What to know as governor campaign enters last 2 months

ALBANY — The 2026 campaign for governor of New York State is primed to accelerate with the traditional Labor Day milepost in sight, with both Democrats and Republicans preaching confidence while engaging in proxy wars.

Here we go.

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, seeking a second full term, holds a 10-point lead in the latest Siena University poll over Republican Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, who contends the race is much closer.

Hochul is trying to build on five years in office, no longer the somewhat unknown figure she was in 2022. She also enjoys the 2-1 Democratic enrollment advantage in New York State and holds a huge fundraising advantage, which hasn’t really been tapped yet.

Blakeman is trying to capitalize on Hochul’s soft approval ratings, the state’s high costs and any anti-incumbency sentiment to become New York’s first Republican governor since George Pataki finished his three terms in 2006.

"Both of them have a significant to-do list," Marist College pollster Lee Miringoff, who has been analyzing New York State elections for 50 years, told Newsday.

Besides energizing their party’s voter base, the candidates face national trends that could impact the outcome, he said.

"One is an incumbent when incumbency is not necessarily viewed as a positive these days," Miringoff said, referring to Hochul. Turning to Blakeman, he added: "The other has Donald Trump to deal with, who is not a favorable figure in New York."

The Republican president is a factor in every state election this year — positive or negative — though not necessarily the deciding factor, Miringoff said. And in New York, a recent Siena University poll found 60% of New Yorkers surveyed said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing in his second term; just 37% approve.

Hochul is "seen in a better light" than when she ran in 2022, Miringoff said. But her job approval rating, now at 48%, can’t seem to crack 50%, which is often important to an incumbent.

"I don’t think people have the sense Albany is humming along with great legislation, but she certainly has become a known governor in her own right," the pollster said.

Relying on "anti-energy"

Each candidate is trying to tar the other by invoking a more well-known figure. Hochul ties Blakeman to Trump. Blakeman says he’d never publicly disagree with the president. Blakeman is trying to link Hochul to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, to scare some voters, especially in the metro suburbs, into putting a new party in charge in Albany.

Blakeman especially "has to rely on anti-energy" — anti-Mamdani, anti-incumbent — because he isn’t well-known statewide and the GOP faces the enrollment and fundraising edges of Democrats, said Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist who has run campaigns in New York for more than 20 years.

Democrats outnumber Republicans, 6 million to 2.8 million, according to the state Board of Elections. About 3.2 million New York voters aren’t enrolled in any party.

"She’s relying on it, too, but it’s not the same when you have that kind of voter registration advantage," Del Percio said, referring to Hochul using an anti-Trump theme. "And she is running for reelection this time, not election."

She referred to Hochul's run in 2022, just one year after ascending from lieutenant governor following former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s resignation.

Del Percio noted Blakeman and Hochul are using proxies who simultaneously compel and repel voters.

"When it comes to Trump and Mamdani, what’s unique is that both drive out their own voters for each candidate and, at the same time, they drive voters against each candidate," Del Percio said.

The final push

Look for campaign cash to really start flowing, post-Labor Day. As of mid-July, Hochul reported having $21 million in her campaign coffers and the state Democratic Party Committee another $16 million.

Blakeman reported having $6.1 million. Though the state GOP had little on hand, Blakeman could be helped by so-called independent Super PACs, or political-action committees that are raising money to oust Hochul.

The GOP doesn’t have to match the Democrats in fundraising to be effective, analysts have said, just enough to improve Blakeman's name recognition — recent polls say around 40% of those surveyed didn’t know Blakeman or have an opinion of him.

Beyond the governor’s race, all 213 seats in the State Senate and Assembly are up for grabs this fall, as well as contests for some county legislatures and state comptroller and attorney general.

"The Democrats are in a strong position," said Grant Reeher, a political scientist at Syracuse University. The party’s numbers advantages and issues, such as immigration raids and Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods, are important factors.

"I don’t think the (costs) of the tariffs have trickled down to the consumer yet, but the business people up here are upset and that’s bound to have an effect," Reeher said.

He said an area of potential traction for Republicans are victories for "democratic socialists" in an array of June primaries that could vote some swing voters away from Hochul — which also ties back to Mamdani.

Said Reeher: "The Republicans have arrived at the idea that the democratic socialist bogeyman is going to be their primary negative message."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy