Hurricane Earl weakens, but Long Island remains on alert

Twenty-four hours after Earl looked like it had the chance to become the fiercest East Coast hurricane ever recorded, the storm threat is now looking like it was all just hot air.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are now predicting that Earl, which went from a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of 145 mph to a Category 2 storm with winds of 105 mph Thursday, will likely be a mere Category 1 hurricane with winds in the 80-mph range by the time it passes Long Island late Friday.

“Though it will still be a hurricane, the impact will be tropical storm force winds,” National Weather Service spokesman Brandon Smith said Friday.

Does it now look like Long Island will dodge a bullet?

“Oh, absolutely,” he said.

As of 6 a.m. Earl was moving north of Cape Hatteras, N.C., less than 400 miles south of Long Island. The National Hurricane Center said it expects Earl to slide past Long Island about 150 miles to our east.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Suffolk County, while all of Nassau is under a tropical storm watch, the weather service said.

Small craft advisories remain in effect for the South Shore.

On Thursday, Suffolk officials announced all beaches and some parks will be closed Friday in anticipation of pounding Atlantic Ocean surf, dangerous and deadly rip currents, gusting winds and potential flooding. However, the weather service now predicts rainfall totals will likely be less than two inches in most areas — on Thursday, it was suggested areas of Suffolk might get more than three inches — and that flooding will be minimal.

Some Nassau County back bay areas may flood, Smith said, as well as some areas of the western Long Island Sound. Gardiners Bay and Peconic Bay could also see some flooding, he said, though the weather service is now predicting that the potential for coastal and inland flooding is almost non-existant except for all but the lowest of low-lying areas and that previous predictions of significant threats may have been overstated. The chance of wind damage is “low” in Nassau and Suffolk, the weather service said.

The weather service said Earl produced little of the much-anticipated storm surge in the Carolinas overnight — and weather service meteorologist Chris Collins told the Associated Press predicted storm surges of 2-to-4 feet may have been a bit too generous.
However, Smith warned that as Earl continues to weaken the storm could actually flatten out — meaning that, while wind velocities won’t be as high the area they cover will be more widespread. And, by default, so could be the area of rainfall.

Smith said the weather service is expecting “bands of rainfall” could hit our area, starting in the afternoon. Western Nassau can expect less than an inch, eastern Nassau and western Suffolk can expect about one inch and eastern Suffolk can expect up to about two inches of rain, Smith said.

Wind gusts of up to about 60-mph are predicted for the East End, while Nassau can expect gusts of no more than about 30 mph, the weather service said. Though wind speeds could be even lower if Earl continues to decrease Friday.

Despite the downgraded status the weather service continues to stress Long Islanders proceed with caution -- taking heed of precautionary and preparedness information. "Final preparations to protect life and property should be completed before conditions deteriorate," the weather service warning read, adding: "The onset of gusty winds and heavy rains can cause outside activities to become dangerous. Secure loose outdoor objects which can be blown around."

The Long Island Rail Road announced Thursday it is suspending service east of Speonk and Ronkonkoma on the Main Line Friday, though it will continue service to Babylon, Great Neck, Far Rockaway, Hicksville and Huntington. The last westbound left Greenport at 5:30 a.m. Friday.

The railroad said it will assess any storm-related damage late Friday and then make a decision on whether or not to resume service Saturday.

Governors in Massachusetts and Rhode Island joined those in North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland in declaring a state of emergency as Earl became one of the 10 largest storms ever recorded to make it as far north up the East Coast as the Carolinas Thursday.
But though Earl was 10 mph from becoming a Category 5 hurricane — and, therefore, the worst storm ever recorded that far north — it now appears Earl might prove to be much ado about nothing, wielding a little wind, a little rain and not much more than a late-summer storm as it skirts Long Island.