GOP successor not impossible after Weiner

The final segment of this bizarre Anthony Weiner show, presented in a spacious senior center off Coney Island Avenue in Brooklyn, had just ended. Battalions of police, reporters and onlookers dispersed. A news-conference heckler gobbled up his last moments of face time before straggling cameras.

This farce, the culmination of the scandal that ousted Weiner from office for vulgar behavior and blatant lies, was quickly giving way to a regional fracas, born of the opportunities it presents others. On the street, a teenager in a yarmulke outside a yeshiva next door may not have known how well he caught the moment when he joked to a friend walking by: "Weiner quit? Yeah? Maybe I'll run!"

In 2005, Weiner ran a strong second in a Democratic primary for mayor, even drawing comparisons to Ed Koch's successful bid long ago as a feisty congressman to win over middle-class ethnics. The assumption was that Weiner could try again. But in 2009, he flinched.

Friday, Weiner starts his political exile, probably for good. This may strengthen the hands held by City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, or Public Advocate Bill de Blasio or Comptroller John Liu. But it also leaves space for a fresh outsider to catch on in time for the 2013 mayoral race.

But to call the hour early understates the case. The city's mayoralty has proven such a wild card that its overwhelmingly Democratic electorate has elected the Republican candidate to the job five times in a row. The mayoralties of Mark Green, Alan Hevesi, and Andrew Stein all once seemed likely at different moments in history.

First scrums first.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo is expected to call a special election for the 9th Congressional District. There is more Queens than Brooklyn in the two-borough district. Given enrollments, the Democrat would still be a presumed favorite. But there's no guarantee. In the recent Western New York race to replace another shirtless-photo-sender, Republican Rep. Chris Lee, the seat went Democratic for the first time in memory.

One active Queens Republican said Thursday: "With money and the right type of candidate, winning this seat is not impossible." Bob Turner, who was Weiner's last challenger, last year got around 40 percent. That was against a pre-scandal incumbent, without outside help. "That's a baseline," the GOPer said.

A special twist here is that Weiner's vacancy occurs on the cusp of the 10-year redistricting. That means the lines could end up very different, a reshuffle that could tweak the electoral terrains of Reps. Joseph Crowley (D-Elmhurst), Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights) or Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola).

One line in Weiner's fairly textbook resignation speech leaped out that might be viewed as an unconscious confession: "I went to public school my whole life."

Judging by his recent lack of maturity, you might guess he hasn't graduated, even if he is 46. It seems certain that those who run to succeed him will do their best to act like adults.