Why the Yankees should let Russell Martin walk in 2013

Of all the catchers in the Yankees' system, from the depths of the rookie league to the major-league roster, the one to most watch this year might be Austin Romine.

Not because he's necessarily the catcher of the future, but because he may allow the Yankees the opportunity to part ways with an increasingly expensive Russell Martin and give one of their young, power-hitting prospects a shot.

Reports swirled last week that the Yankees were discussing an extension with Martin, who is eligible for free agency at the end of this season. Later, the sides decided to table the discussion until the end of the season. Martin, 29, will cost the Yankees $7.5 million this season and any extension now would likely increase that figure.

But while Martin has been a solid defensive catcher and is well-liked by the pitching staff, his bat is often a dead spot in the lineup. Of the 15 MLB catchers who recorded at least 450 plate appearances last season, Martin was tied for 10th in batting average (.235), finished eighth in on-base percentage (.324) and ninth in slugging (.408). Not horrendous, but decidedly middle of the pack. And while he threw out an MLB-high 40 base stealers last year, the 95 stolen bases he allowed were third most.

Enter Romine.

With the Yankees' best catching prospects two to three seasons away, the question is essentially this: Will Martin sign up for just a one or two-year deal, or does he envision something more substantial? And even if he would be amenable to a short contract, will his production be that much better than Romine's, who the Yankees would control at a fraction of the cost? Hal Steinbrenner has said he wants the Yankees' payroll at or under $189 million after the 2013 season to avoid a luxury tax hit.

A strong season from Romine would allow Brian Cashman to slot him in as the starter in 2013, giving Romine time to either prove he's got a productive major league stick or allow him to serve as a place holder for one of the younger jewels in the Yankees' system.

Even after trading uber-prospect Jesus Montero, the Yankees have four catchers that project to be anywhere from average regulars to elite players, with varying levels of probability. The 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst lists Romine, J.R. Murphy, Gary Sanchez and Isaias Tejeda as all having the potential to be starting catchers in the majors.

It also assigns each prospect a letter and number combination corresponding to their likely future success: 1-4 are minor leaguers, 5-6 are part-time MLB players, 7 is an average regular, 8 is a solid regular, 9 is an elite player and 10 is a Hall of Famer. For the letters: E means the player has a 10 percent probability of reaching his potential, D is 30 percent, C is 50 percent, B is 70 percent and A is 90 percent. For example, Montero was listed as 9D, meaning he has a 30 percent chance of developing into an elite player.

Here's how they break down:

- Romine (8D), a 26-year-old switch-hitter who had 19 at-bats with the Yankees late last season, is the closest to the majors. He had hoped to give Francisco Cervelli some competition for the backup catcher's job this season, though he's currently sidelined after an MRI showed inflammation in his lower back. Romine has just 34 at-bats above the Double-A level, and could likely benefit from at least another year of minor league seasoning. He's hit in the .268-.286 range throughout his minor-league career with some flashes of decent power (10 home runs at Double-A in 2010). The Analyst calls him an “athletic backstop” who “should hit for a nice” average.

- Murphy (7C), a 21-year-old switch-hitter, finished last season with the Yankees advanced Single-A affiliate. The Analyst expects him to be major league ready around 2014, citing his “good hitting ability” though cautioning about his “less than stellar glovework.” Murphy hit .297 with six home runs during a partial season at Single-A Charleston in 2011. He finished up the year by hitting .259 with one home run as a Tampa Yankee.

- Sanchez (9D), a 19-year-old who bats right-handed, spent last season at Single-A Charleston. The Analyst projects him to be ready around 2014 and likes his power. It's easy to see why. Even at his young age he smashed 17 home runs in just 301 at-bats last season. Because of his hitting potential and a strong arm, Sanchez is projected at the highest level of any Yankee minor-league catcher and on the same level as Montero (though, because of his young age, not the same probability of reaching it). However, as with Montero, he's not perfect. The Analyst notes that his “blocking and receiving need work.”

- Tejeda (8E), a 20-year-old who bats right-handed, spent his rookie season in the Gulf Coast League, with a three at-bat cameo on Staten Island. The Analyst calls him a “patient and natural hitter” with a “good glove and catch and throw skills” and projects him to arrive in the majors in 2015. He came out of the gate strong in 2011, hitting .331 with six home runs in 148 at-bats with the GCL Yankees.

Cody Derespina's "The Numbers Game" is a Newsday app-only exclusive.