Yankees banking on bounceback seasons from starters Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes

TAMPA, Fla. – A veteran American League scout who has covered the Yankees’ organization extensively over the years recently offered his assessment of the club’s projected 2024 rotation.

“A lot could go right, a lot could go wrong,” the evaluator said. “Cole is Cole and then what? You can make an argument why it will be really good or why it crashes and burns. Kind of fascinating.”

Gerrit Cole, of course, anchors the group.

Seemingly in the prime of a career that may eventually land him in Cooperstown, Cole is coming off a 2023 that netted him the AL Cy Young after going 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA in an MLB-leading 33 starts.

“He’s the best pitcher in the game,” Aaron Judge said after Cole two-hit the Blue Jays in his final start of the season, a 6-0 victory in Toronto. “This is Gerrit Cole’s era, that’s for sure. He’s the benchmark for what an ace is supposed to like, on and off the field.”

The 33-year-old Cole, who arrived in Tampa on Tuesday and spent much of the morning and early afternoon at the club’s minor league complex, was remarkably consistent last season, even by his standards.

Cole allowed two or fewer runs in 26 of those 33 starts, with just four of those that could be categorized as “bad,” a quartet of outings in which Cole allowed 20 earned runs in 21 innings. In his 29 other starts, Cole, signed to a nine-year, $324-million free agent deal before the 2020 season, had a 1.90 ERA. He led the AL in innings with 209.

Cole, strikingly durable throughout his career, should be a given assuming he stays healthy.

But it’s who follows Cole where things get interesting.

General manager Brian Cashman accurately described his team’s 82-80 performance last season as “a disaster,” which would be an apt description of Carlos Rodon’s first year in the Bronx. The lefthander, signed to a six-year, $162 million free agent deal, started 2023 on the injured list and was mostly brutal after returning, going 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA.

Is the 31-year-old one of those players for whom the pinstripes, to use an old Reggie Jackson line, are just too “heavy?”

That can’t be said yet about Rodon. This is a pitcher, after all, who is 59-54 with a 3.83 ERA in his nine years in the majors, including a combined 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA in 2021 and ’22. Rodon, whose desire to be truly great was at times questioned organizationally during his seven seasons with the White Sox (2015-21), has been a regular at the minor league complex here since early January. The lefty showed up with a body that impressed more than a few behind the scenes at the complex. Early reports from the inside on his bullpens have been overwhelmingly positive.

The same goes for Marcus Stroman, whom the Yankees signed to a two-year, $37 million free agent contract after losing out to the Dodgers on Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Long Island native, who has been at the complex for the last week-plus, brings some baggage to the Bronx, much of that having to do with multiple social media spats with fans and some media members over the years. But the Yankees believe Stroman, whose career resume (3.65 ERA over nine seasons) should have garnered him a bigger deal on the market than he received, is in a perfect spot. And not just because of his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He’ll walk into a clubhouse already with strong leaders and personalities – Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and Cole, to name a handful – and isn’t likely to rock the boat. Stroman’s competitiveness has never been questioned.

Next is Nestor Cortes, who had a breakthrough 2022 when he went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA before shoulder issues cropped up early in 2023 and never really went away. If the Yankees get the Cortes of two years ago, there would be few better No. 4 starters (or No. 3’s for that matter) in the sport. But he’s far from a sure thing.

Clarke Schmidt, barring something unforeseen in the spring, rounds out the group. The 27-year-old showed more good than bad in his first full season as a starter, going 9-9 with a 4.64 ERA. At times the righthander flashed considerably better stuff than those numbers suggest but the next step in his development is flashing it far more consistently.

Teams typically need at least nine starters – and usually more – to get through a given season because of the inevitable rotation attrition that takes place, whether it be injury or poor performance. And the Yankees dealt away much of their organizational starting pitching depth over the winter – necessarily so – to bolster a floundering offense. There will be plenty of spring hype surrounding prospects such as Will Warren, Luis Gil, Chase Hampton and Yoendrys Gómez but it is always wise to proceed with caution when it comes to having to dip too often into the prospect pool.

“I think we have a good rotation if everything goes right, which is something you don’t want to count on and lay back counting on,” Cashman said on Jan. 18 in talking about the Stroman acquisition. “We will constantly continue to look and tinker if possible, but we do like what we have.”

Still, an additional reinforcement or two in that area isn’t out of the question. And it won’t be a shock to anyone if that occurs before the Yankees leave camp.