How the Jets can beat the Colts

FLORHAM PARK, N.J.

Like any good football coach, Rex Ryan will throw in a boxing metaphor every now and then to emphasize a point. Tuesday's reference was more about how a certain boxer's mind-set - not his jab or right hook - describes Ryan's sense of confidence heading into Saturday night's matchup against the Colts.

It's something Ryan once heard former champion Sugar Ray Robinson say, and it has stuck with the Jets' coach all his life. And it's especially appropriate under the circumstances.

"I use that old Ray Robinson quote, 'To be a champion, you've got to think you can win when nobody else thinks you can,' " Ryan said, approximating Robinson's quote at the Jets' training facility. "I believe in myself and I believe in the people here. If you don't, then you've got no chance."

In Ryan's case, not many people are giving him a chance in Saturday's rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game, which the Colts and Peyton Manning won convincingly, 30-17, at Lucas Oil Stadium. But at least as far as this first round is concerned, I'm giving the Jets more than just a puncher's chance against the Colts, who are simply not the dominant team they were heading into last year's playoffs.

"I think we'll match up better this time," Ryan said. "Indy's always true to who they are, and we're always true to who we are. We'll see if it's a different outcome. I believe it will be."

Agreed, but only if the Jets can take advantage of those matchups in what we see as a six-point plan to beat the Colts:

1. Take Reggie Wayne out of the game. The All-Pro receiver finished with a career-high 111 receptions, and has been Peyton Manning's go-to guy, especially in the injury-related absence of tight end Dallas Clark and wide receiver Austin Collie. Wayne's timing routes with Manning are often impossible to defend, but the Jets can come as close as anyone by matching All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis on him. That's exactly what Ryan plans, and Revis gets the clear advantage here, as long as he doesn't encounter any hamstring problems. Revis is the most dominant shutdown corner in the game, and there's no reason he can't neutralize Wayne and force Manning to either look his receiver off and go elsewhere, or risk an interception or pass breakup by throwing in Revis' direction.

2. "Al-Cro-Traz time." OK, so that nickname that Antonio Cromartie gave himself - a poor man's version of "Revis Island" - is on the goofy side. But this is a matchup that goes in the Jets' favor, something the team didn't have last year because they never had an established corner to play opposite Revis. In that one, Ryan replaced Lito Sheppard with Dwight Lowery, who got smoked by Pierre Garçon and Collie for a combined nine catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. But if Cromartie is on his game, then he can dominate the matchup with Garçon, who has not been nearly as reliable a receiver this year as last year. Sure, he's capable of making the big catch, but he's had problems with drops and hasn't thrived in the absence of Collie and Clark. Drew Coleman will play the nickel for the Jets, and he should be able to contain receiver Blair White. Advantage: Jets.

3. Put some heat on Peyton: Let's face it. You could throw the '85 Bears defense out there against Manning, but it would still be difficult to sack him. After all, he was sacked an average of just one a game this year. "He has the fastest arm in the NFL, not even close," Jets defensive tackle Trevor Pryce said. "He can throw it from back here behind his helmet and just flick his arm real fast." Pryce once rushed Manning so quickly, he estimated it took 1.5 seconds to get to the quarterback; by then, he had delivered a touchdown pass. "It was like a 40-yard play, and I'm like, really?"

So the idea here is to try and get enough pressure on Manning to at least make him force his throws earlier than he likes. A sack or two? Fine. But if you disrupt his timing often enough, you'll stand a reasonable chance of preventing him from getting on the kind of roll that makes him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks of this or any era.

4. Establish the run early, often. The other surefire way to contain Manning: Don't let him on the field. The best way to do that: Run the ball and dominate the time of possession. Easier said than done, yes, especially with the Colts' resurgent run defense, which has allowed just 80 rushing yards per game the past month. And that includes games against Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden. That means LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene need to be at their best, and the Jets' vaunted offensive line needs to establish itself early. One other byproduct of an effective running game: a better play-action passing game for Mark Sanchez, who needs the threat of a legitimate rushing attack to get that split second longer to find his open receivers.

5. Bottle up the run. The Colts haven't been known as a running team, but in the last month, they have been a veritable machine. Consider: Over their last four games, the Colts have rushed for 534 yards. In their previous 12 games, they ran for 949 yards. They like to use a three-man rotation of Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Dominic Rhodes. The Jets' run defense was third in the NFL, allowing just 90.9 yards per game and 3.6 yards per rush. Big effort needed here.

6. Tone Time: Another player the Jets didn't have in last year's game against the Colts: Santonio Holmes. Just as Cromartie gives the defense a legitimate threat opposite Revis, Holmes in combination with Braylon Edwards gives the offense an element that allows Sanchez a huge weapon. And considering Holmes' money play in big spots - see: Super Bowl MVP on his resume - it's a huge advantage. Not only that, but it opens things up down the middle for tight end Dustin Keller, who had six catches and a touchdown in last year's playoff game against the Colts.

Put it all together, and there's no reason to think the Jets can't deliver the knockout blow in round one and turn Ryan's memories of Sugar Ray into a return match against the Patriots in round two.

Jets 24, Colts 20.