Sarra: Power ratings not perfect: Ask Newfield
Newfield quarterback Mike Lopes-Silva (2) follows his blocker into the end zone for his second touchdown of the game. (Sept. 19, 2010) Credit: Joseph D. Sullivan
The complex power ratings for high school football have struck again.
Every so often, Long Island has a team that defies the preseason seeding and plays exceedingly well. When that happens, the ratings wreak havoc with what normally would be simple won-loss standings and ultimately affect the postseason. In 2010, the victim of the BCS-like system is undefeated Newfield.
The Wolverines were the preseason 10th seed in Suffolk’s Division II. They’re a school record 7-0 and play at Bellport (4-3) in the regular-season finale tomorrow at 1:30 p.m. They are the lone undefeated team in Division II, and yet, trail first-place East Islip, a team they beat, 23-7, in the power ratings, 140-134.49.
How could that be right? It is an outrage if you’re a Wolverines fan and don’t understand the power ratings. It would seem logical that Newfield should stand above East Islip for the simple fact that they have a better record and handed the Redmen their only loss.
But the standings are correct if you know how the system works. Figuring out that system is something else. The basic explanation is that a team’s power rating is gathered each week, after the fourth game of the season, based on its record, strength of schedule and opponents’ record.
Take nothing away from what has been the most successful season in Newfield’s 53-year football history. It has been a joy ride that has the school and the community caught up in the magic and believing in the dream. Forget about the potential for a county crown and an appearance in the Long Island championships for a moment. They are good enough to get there.
But the first significant hurdle for Newfield is to win a playoff game. Newfield has never won a playoff game. It is 0-7 in the postseason.
The reality this year is that the Wolverines have played the schedule of a 10th seed. They’ve beaten four opponents that have a combined total of three wins. If you’re looking for a breakout season, the 10th seed is the optimal seed because you don’t play the first, third-, fifth- and seventh-seeded teams. Newfield didn’t play North Babylon, Hills West, West Babylon and West Islip.
The system was designed to help the weaker teams get lower preseason seeds, thus, easier schedules. The preseason seeds are set by the coaches association to create competitive schedules.
No one is apologizing for the schedule maker. But the result of a soft schedule is a low power rating.
“We can only play the teams on our schedule,” said Newfield coach Joe Piccininni. “We get after it one week at a time. We don’t worry about the things that are out of our control.”
For Newfield to earn the top seed on the playoffs, the Wolverines must beat Bellport on the road and have West Islip upset East Islip to move up in the power ratings. Newfield never has won at Bellport. And Bellport has lost three games by a total of only seven points.
Newfield is 1-11 in the all-time series and has been outscored, 545-87.
Piccininni, a former star lineman for the legendary Joe Cipp Jr. at Bellport, is doing at Newfield what Cipp developed at Bellport. He is building a strong foundation and finds himself on the cusp of something sweet. He doesn’t care about power ratings.
In six years, Piccininni has led the Wolverines to the playoffs three times. In the 47 years before his arrival, they were playoff participants five times.
He knows a storied program steeped in a winning tradition opens its gates to the undefeated Wolverines Saturday afternoon.
History says Bellport will win and once again douse Newfield’s fire. But history also says, Newfield has never before been mentioned in the same breath as the undefeated this deep into the season — until now.
