Cuomo: COVID-19 positivity rate falls again in NY, but variant cases on the rise

New York’s COVID-19 positivity rate fell to its lowest level in nearly three months on Friday, the office of Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said — but 54 new cases of a more contagious variant of the coronavirus signal the risks that remain.

The 3.06% single-day positivity rate is the lowest since Nov. 23, three days before the Thanksgiving holiday, which experts say — along with December holidays — helped fuel a rise in infections because of an increase in at-home gatherings.

The positivity rate likely will begin to rise again in March or April, as the U.K. variant spreads, predicted Dr. David Hirschwerk, an infectious disease expert and interim chairman of medicine at the Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell in Hempstead.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that the variant, which British scientists say appears to be more deadly as well as more easily transmissible, may become the dominant coronavirus strain in the United States by late March. In Britain, the variant led to a surge in cases that overwhelmed hospitals and led to a spike in deaths.

How widely it spreads in New York depends in part on how much residents adhere to mask wearing, social distancing and other precautions, and on the effect of the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions, Hirschwerk said.

Cuomo has in the past 10 days announced relaxing visitation rules at nursing homes, reopening amusement centers and parks, allowing professional sports at 10% capacity, and increasing the maximum capacity at New York City restaurants.

Hirschwerk said the restrictions accompanying the reopenings indicate "they seem to be opening up in a careful way," but, he said, "it will be critical to monitor the cases in our area as these things open up, and if we see that cases are starting to rise, it may very well be necessary to pull back these openings."

U.K. variant in NY rises 66%

The number of confirmed New York cases of the U.K. variant rose 66% on Friday, from 82 to 136. Two of the 54 new cases were in Suffolk County and one was in Nassau, with 46 in New York City.

But Hirschwerk said that with only about a half-percent of positive coronavirus tests being sequenced for the variant nationwide, "I don’t think we have any idea whatsoever how many individuals have the variant at this point."

Meanwhile, the state's seven-day positivity rate — which epidemiologists often focus on because it smooths out daily anomalies — dropped for the 43rd consecutive day on Friday, to 3.53%, the governor’s office said.

Long Island had the second-highest seven-day rate of New York State's 10 regions: 4.31%. New York City’s was highest, at 4.4%. Positivity rates during the summer were often below 1%.

Hospitalizations dropped below 6,000 for the first time since Dec. 14, to 5,977, down 178 from Thursday.

"Our ability to beat back COVID is entirely dependent on our actions, and the post-holiday reduction in positivity and hospitalizations demonstrates that New Yorkers are continuing to do the right things to stay safe," Cuomo said in a statement.

Another 97 New Yorkers died of COVID-19 on Friday, including nine Suffolk County residents and eight Nassau County residents.

Some minorities less likely vaccinated

Demographic data posted by the state Friday showed that Black and Latino New Yorkers are still less likely to receive vaccines than other residents, based on their share of the population eligible to be vaccinated.

The state has set up pop-up sites in areas of the state with large Black and Latino populations to increase vaccination levels there.

On Long Island, 10.9% of the eligible population is Black, but only 5% of those receiving the vaccine by Friday were Black. Latinos represent 11.5% of the eligible population but only 6.8% of those getting the vaccine. Asian residents were more likely to be vaccinated: 8.4% of those getting the vaccine were Asian, who are 5.6% of the eligible population.

More than 83% of those vaccinated have been white, compared with about 82% of the population that is categorized as white.

The vaccination numbers add up to more than 100% because the state collects data by both race and ethnicity, so, for example, a Latino resident who identifies as white will show up in the "Hispanic or Latino" and "white" categories.

As vaccination sites in New York await vaccine shipments that were delayed by winter storms across the country, the state announced that 90% of the 3.6 million first and second doses of vaccines that had been received as of 11 a.m. Saturday had been administered. Both vaccines that are currently authorized — from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna — require two doses.

On Long Island, 410,367 doses had been administered — 91% of those received.

Nassau Executive Laura Curran said in a statement Saturday that 15.6% of Nassau residents have received at least one vaccine dose, a proportion that she said is the highest among downstate counties.

"With continued vigilance and a growing number of residents getting vaccinated, we're well on our way to defeating this virus," she said.

Of the 7,692 people whose test results were positive on Friday, 602 were in Nassau, with the same number testing positive in Suffolk.

Sign up for COVID-19 text alerts at newsday.com/text.

By David Olson

david.olson@newsday.com@DavidOlson11

David Olson covers health care. He has worked at Newsday since 2015 and previously covered immigration, multicultural issues and religion at The Press-Enterprise in Southern California.